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Cancer Cases in Kenya; Forecasting Incidents Using Box & Jenkins Arima Model
Amos Langat,
George Orwa,
Joel Koima
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
37-48
Received:
13 December 2016
Accepted:
17 January 2017
Published:
15 February 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.11
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Abstract: The aim of the study was to fit appropriate time series models in assessing the accuracy of the Box Jenkins and ARIMA model in forecasting of Cancer case admissions for all people of any age from different health facilities across the country. Box-Jenkins was selected for evaluation because it has the potential of producing a point forecast within a given population, it provides a forecast interval, and is based upon a proven model. Forecast results and their associated forecast intervals may help Health facilities and health practitioners make informed decisions about whether the number of observed cancer reports in a given timeframe represents a potential incidence or is a function of random variation. Data management and analysis were done in SPSS Software. The data was segmented into two sets: Training Set (from 2000 to 2015) and the Test Set (from 2016 to 2018). The hold out set (test) provides the gold standard for measuring the model’s true prediction error which refers to how well the model forecasts for new data. To note, the test data were only be used after a definitive model has been selected. This was to ensure unbiased estimates of the true forecast error. The results were presented in form of tables, graphs and context. In this study, the developed model for cancer case incidents in Kenya was found to be an ARIMA (2,1,0). From the forecast available by using the developed model, it can be seen that forecasted incidents for the year 2015-16 is higher than 2014-15 and in later years the incidents increases. The model can be used by researchers for forecasting of cancer incidents in Kenya.
Abstract: The aim of the study was to fit appropriate time series models in assessing the accuracy of the Box Jenkins and ARIMA model in forecasting of Cancer case admissions for all people of any age from different health facilities across the country. Box-Jenkins was selected for evaluation because it has the potential of producing a point forecast within ...
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Design and Analysis of Hexagon Microstrip Patch Sierpinski Carpet Antenna
T. Jayanthy,
D. Rajeswari
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
49-53
Received:
11 January 2017
Accepted:
24 January 2017
Published:
21 February 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.12
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Abstract: In the present paper a detailed study of a new compacted hexagon microstrip patch antenna using fractal ground plane and shorting pin is presented. The design process starts by a simple hexagon patch antenna fed by a microstrip line and simulated in the frequency range of 3.1GHz-10.8GHz. The fractal geometry used here is Sierpinski carpets method. Three iterations have been done and the third iteration gives best performance. The miniaturization strategy is performed in two stages. The first stage, a third order of the Sierpinski carpet is applied to the ground. Inserting a shorting pin linking the patch to the ground constituted the second stage. Both the stages are analyzed and compared, Sierpinski carpet the gives best output. The performances are analyzed in terms of return loss, directivity, gain, and radiation pattern.
Abstract: In the present paper a detailed study of a new compacted hexagon microstrip patch antenna using fractal ground plane and shorting pin is presented. The design process starts by a simple hexagon patch antenna fed by a microstrip line and simulated in the frequency range of 3.1GHz-10.8GHz. The fractal geometry used here is Sierpinski carpets method. ...
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Noise Pollution and Control in Mechanical Processing Wood Industries
Mayowa Jacob Owoyemi,
Babajide Charles Falemara,
Ayomide Joseph Owoyemi
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
54-60
Received:
8 January 2017
Accepted:
6 February 2017
Published:
24 February 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.13
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Abstract: High level of noise is a disturbance to the human environment. Noise in industries is also an occupational hazard because of its attendant effects on workers’ health. Noise presents health and social problems in industrial operations, and the source is related to the machineries used in the industries. One of the unique features of the noise associated with wood machinery is the level of exposure and duration. Equipment used in a factory can be extremely loud. They can produce noise at decibels high enough to cause environmental health and safety concerns. The mechanically driven transport and handling equipment, cutting, milling, shaping and dust extractor installations in the wood industry generate noise. The sources of noise pollution have increased due to non-compliance with basic safety practices. The increased use of locally fabricated machine in the industry has increased the level of noise and vibration. The effects of industrial noise pollution as discussed include: increase in blood pressure; increased stress; fatigue; vertigo; headaches; sleep disturbance; annoyance; speech problems; dysgraphia, which means reading/learning impairment; aggression; anxiety and withdrawal. As presented in this paper, noise control techniques include; sound insulation, sound absorption, vibration damping and Vibration isolation.
Abstract: High level of noise is a disturbance to the human environment. Noise in industries is also an occupational hazard because of its attendant effects on workers’ health. Noise presents health and social problems in industrial operations, and the source is related to the machineries used in the industries. One of the unique features of the noise associ...
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Causality in Medicine and Its Relationship with the Role of Statistics
Antonio Monleon-Getino,
Jaume Canela-Soler
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
61-68
Received:
17 January 2017
Accepted:
4 February 2017
Published:
24 February 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.14
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Abstract: The general goal of this work is the clarification of the use of concepts of causality in medicine and its relationship with the role of statistics. The value of an association is the evidence of causality. The Bradford Hill considerations on causality are the criteria commonly used to infer causality. Statistics help to know the role of chance in the working medical hypotheses but does not prevent other common mistakes made during clinical research, such as biases. Man has found a procedure that removes the most of all subjectivities and external factors: the scientific method, this does not mean that scientific studies are infallible. There are many factors influencing the cure or improvement of a disease that would be take in account: spontaneous resolution, regression to the mean, the Forer effect, placebo effect and other. The subjective observation of these phenomena is often insufficient when it comes to analyzing the effectiveness of therapies, medications, diets, homeopathy, cosmetics and natural therapies. It is very difficult to establish causality in health sciences but not impossible, the principles of this establishement can be resumed as Temporality, Strength, Consistency, Biology, Plausibility, Specificity, Analogy, Experiment and Coherence.
Abstract: The general goal of this work is the clarification of the use of concepts of causality in medicine and its relationship with the role of statistics. The value of an association is the evidence of causality. The Bradford Hill considerations on causality are the criteria commonly used to infer causality. Statistics help to know the role of chance in ...
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An Empirical Study on Impact of Customers’ Satisfaction and Loyalty Towards Hospitals in Coimbatore City
S. Shanmugapriya,
K. Arun Kumar,
P. Kiruthika,
L. Priya
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
69-72
Received:
29 November 2016
Accepted:
6 February 2017
Published:
27 February 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.15
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Abstract: In the competitive world number of Hospitals have been emerged and captured the market too. Almost every one of us is using hospitals for their health care. Each hospital has been providing different Treatment methods with specialized doctors, and introducing innovation equipment to retain the customers. In fact, it is a daunting task for each Hospital, to give quality treatment, clean and Hygiene environment to the patients. So it is very complicate to decide about the hospitals has its role. Hence this study is going to conclude the satisfaction, loyalty towards hospitals and understanding the customer’s awareness among the hospitals in Coimbatore city. Providing high service quality is one of the main functions of health systems. Measuring service quality is the basic prerequisite for improving quality.
Abstract: In the competitive world number of Hospitals have been emerged and captured the market too. Almost every one of us is using hospitals for their health care. Each hospital has been providing different Treatment methods with specialized doctors, and introducing innovation equipment to retain the customers. In fact, it is a daunting task for each Hosp...
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Automatic Brain Tumor Detection in MRI Using Image Processing Techniques
Mariam Saii,
Zaid Kraitem
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
73-76
Received:
6 January 2017
Accepted:
3 February 2017
Published:
1 March 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.16
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Abstract: The research offers a fully automatic method for tumor segmentation on Magnetic Resonance Images MRI. In this method, at first in the preprocessing level, anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to the image by 8-connected neighborhood for removing noise from it. In the second step, using Support Vector Machine SVM Classifier for tumor detection accurately. After creating the appropriate mask image, based on the symmetry property in axial and coronary magnetic resonance images. The tumor detected and segmented (Dice coefficient > 0.90) in a few seconds. The method applied on several MR images with different types regardless of the degree of complexity in those images.
Abstract: The research offers a fully automatic method for tumor segmentation on Magnetic Resonance Images MRI. In this method, at first in the preprocessing level, anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to the image by 8-connected neighborhood for removing noise from it. In the second step, using Support Vector Machine SVM Classifier for tumor detection ac...
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Towards Internet of Things Supported Active Ageing and Home-Care
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
77-86
Received:
15 January 2017
Accepted:
7 February 2017
Published:
9 March 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.17
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Abstract: Population-ageing, due to rising life expectancy, has been observed in most Western and the developed Asian-Pacific countries. It is important to ensure for the ageing population, the necessary technical-background, the medical-managerial environment and the social-economic conditions, ensuring a better perspective for their “third age”. WHO summarizes this perspective in three cardinal aspects of life i.e. Health-Participation-Security. An important factor to ensure these aspects of “successfully ageing” is the existence of a social network, supporting healthy and active seniors to prevent themselves from illness and accidents and to help the ones suffering from chronic diseases, physical disabilities or mental impairment, to sustain stable or even improve their conditions. The purpose of this paper is to review the advances, of the already ITU-FG-M2M-SL-2014 defined: “Requirements and architectural framework” so called “Internet of Things” (IoT), towards active ageing and ICT-supported Home-care, as reflected on relevant Industrial Property (IP) Documents, published during the last five years. Further, it is attempted to inspect an emerging, correlation, between “successfully ageing”, industrial and economic progress and social welfare, for the ageing populations of the “traditional” and the emerging “new” industrial countries and the perspectives of their fruitful cooperation to face these challenges.
Abstract: Population-ageing, due to rising life expectancy, has been observed in most Western and the developed Asian-Pacific countries. It is important to ensure for the ageing population, the necessary technical-background, the medical-managerial environment and the social-economic conditions, ensuring a better perspective for their “third age”. WHO summar...
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A Family of Recurrence Generated Functions Based on “Half–Hyperbolic Tangent Activation Function”
Vesselin Kyurkchiev,
Nikolay Kyurkchiev
Issue:
Volume 2, Issue 2, June 2017
Pages:
87-94
Received:
9 January 2017
Accepted:
1 March 2017
Published:
22 March 2017
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20170202.18
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Abstract: In this note we construct a family of recurrence generated parametric half hyperbolic tangent activation functions. We prove precise upper and lower estimates for the Hausdorff approximation of the sign function by means of this family. Numerical examples, illustrating our results are given.
